EU meat production starts to grow - but exports may tumble, says Brussels report

However, exports might fall for pigmeat and poultry, with Russian import bans especially causing problems for pigmeat.

In its latest ‘short term outlook’ report on EU food markets and production, the Commission said meat production would recover "after two years of tight supplies for beef and pig meat".​ It explained: "The mild economic recovery sets the scene…but political uncertainty, sanitary barriers and self-sufficiency targets in some of the most important trade partners of the EU are expected to drive meat exports down significantly (-4.7%), with pig and poultry meat being most affected."​

Regarding beef, production is expected to recover 1.4% in 2014 compared to 2013 and 2.3% in 2015, with dairy cow herd restocking releasing more meat onto the market. This is happening at different times across the EU, however. While it helps explains increased year-on-year slaughtering from January to April in Ireland (+13%), Poland (+12%), Britain (+3%) and Germany (+4%), there have been falls in Italy (-21%), France (-2%), and Hungary (-9%).

This increased production could boost 2014 beef exports by 5%, with sustained demand from Russia, Switzerland and Bosnia & Herzegovina. However, Russia’s June ban on EU beef trimmings and offal imports may decrease exports.

January-to-April 2014 beef imports fell 3.7% year-on-year, with Argentina and Uruguay-sourced imports declining by 19% because of increased domestic consumption and exporters re-orienting sales to China and to Russia. Brussels however predicts total 2014 EU beef imports will recover for the rest of 2014.

Meanwhile, 2014 pig meat production is also projected to rise, albeit by 0.2%, with higher supplies in Denmark and the Netherlands mitigating falls in France, Germany and Spain. Production might increase 0.8% in 2015. This follows 2013 falls in production following the compulsory introduction of welfare rules for breeding sows.

Pigmeat exports have been damaged by the Russian ban based on African Swine Fever cases in Lithuania and Poland (and now Latvia). Pigmeat shipments to Russia in January-to-April fell 80% year-on-year – but total exports fell just 16%, with US supply falls following its porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus outbreak sparking increased EU pig meat sales in Asia, especially mainland China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and the Philippines.

But with Russian volumes accounting for one third of EU exports, 2014 EU pigmeat exports should fall for the first time in several years – down 7% compared to 2013 – predicts the Commission.

Poultry meat production is projected to continue increasing by 1.1% in 2014 compared to 2013, continuing a long term trend.  However, exports are projected to fall (down 2.4%). Sales to Ukraine may fall through self-sufficiency policies, the country’s political tensions and currency devaluation; and exports to Russia have been declining because of similar self-sufficiency policies.

EU sheep and goat meat production will also rise in 2014 (up 1.1%) says the Commission, with prices high: heavy lamb prices, at EUR572/100 kg in May, are 15% above the 2012-13 average. Lamb shortages in New Zealand are expected to drive down EU sheep imports by 2.5%, with New Zealand also increasing sales to China and Saudi Arabia: first quarter shipments rose 30% and 13% respectively year-on-year. "More imports from Australia will not fill the gap,"​ said Brussels.

*http://http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets-and-prices/short-term-outlook/pdf/2014-07_en.pdf​