The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects beef and pork production to expand steadily between now and 2025, meaning prices for protein will fall over the period.
Low feed costs and rising meat demand in domestic and foreign markets will lead to greater production, in turn leading to beef and pork prices falling by 10.6% and 11.6% respectively over the same period.
The forecast rise in production comes despite widespread volatility in the US cattle market, where pressure is mounting between cash cattle prices and the futures market, according to Rabobank. Despite the pressure, the trade balance is improving in the US, with beef exports from January to July up by 3% and production up by 4%.
Beef to outpace poultry
Production of beef is expected to rise further over 2016-2017 after China lifted its 2003 import ban on US beef last week.
USDA expects beef consumption per capita to increase by 2.7% by 2025, outpacing the dominant rise in consumption of broiler chickens – the poultry used in the fast-food industry.
The projected drop in beef and pork prices may receive a multi-year decline in meat consumption in the US, claim USDA. A combined consumption increase in beef and pork is expected to lift the total amount of meat consumed per person in the US from 211lb last year to 219lb in 2025.