According to the latest Rabobank Poultry Quarterly report, the global poultry market is performing “relatively well” but faces challenges from a variety of sources.
The research cited EU restrictions on several Brazilian export plants, changing halal standards in Saudi Arabia, the ongoing impact of the truckers strike in Brazil, and the recent safeguard on Brazilian chicken imports set by China as various reasons for volatility in the sector.
It also warned that shifting commodity prices, particularly grain and oilseed, avian influenza outbreaks and ASF incidents are having an impact on poultry.
“The recent African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in China can also indirectly impact global poultry markets” said Nan-Dirk Mulder, senior analyst – Animal Protein. “If the outbreaks spread quickly, significant liquidation of China’s pig herd could occur, pressuring all meat prices in China. This could reverse in 2019, with Chinese consumers turning from pork to poultry, pushing up local prices. These challenges can paint a somewhat pessimistic picture, while in reality, poultry industry performance is still good in most parts of the world.”
Rabobank reported that a lot of the volatility in the market stems from Brazil due to the trade restrictions, trucker striker and rising feed prices, leading to a 20% drop in poultry export volumes from the country, compared to the previous quarter.
It said that Thailand had benefitted from this trend, growing export volumes 11% in the first half of 2018. The US and EU also reported modest export increases. In Russia, poultry prices have been rising however feed costs have risen significantly. China was reported to have a strong quarter however Rabobank predicted that domestic production will slow in 2018.