In its latest Global Information Network Report, the FAS stated that imports of pork were expected to drop by 9% to 375,000mt. Imports of live swine are also forecast to fall off in 2015, as a result of increased domestic production, and the trade restrictions effecting North America and Europe.
Imports of cattle are predicted to remain relatively flat in 2015, at 100,000 head. This follows an estimated 10% drop this year. While exports of cattle are expected to remain level at 15,000 head.
Cattle slaughterings are expected to rise, due a combination of Russia’s import restrictions, but also as a result of its dairies continuing to slaughter less productive cattle. Therefore a slight increase in domestic beef production is anticipated, to 1.4mmt – less than a 1% rise.
"Although livestock importers continue to remain interested in improving the quality of their genetics, many existing Russian livestock importers are still carrying debts from previous purchases. New importers supported by federal assistance, however, should help to bolster imports this year and next," read the report.
It is estimated that Russia will import 825,000mt cwe of beef and veal next year, and will export 10,000mt cwe.
Beef/veal consumption is predicted to remain flat at 15.6kg per capita – up from 15.5kg this year.
FAS/Moscow said pork production was expected to rise, due to the increased availability of affordable feed, as well as continued investment in Russia’s domestic pork industry and ongoing support measures.
It forecast "the cessation of swine imports in 2015, as a result of increased domestic production and continuing live swine import restrictions instituted by the Russian Veterinary Service, because of the detection of African Swine Fever in Europe and porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDv) in North America and elsewhere."
Domestic pork consumption is expected to increase on the back of higher production, and is estimated to rise from 21.5kg per capita in 2014 to 22.4kg in 2015.